Scenario guide

Inventory Carrying Cost Versus Stockout Risk

Balance the annual cost of keeping buffer stock against potential lost contribution from stockouts.

How to use these calculators

Holding too much inventory consumes working capital, while running out can jeopardize customer orders. Use an annual holding-rate assumption to estimate carrying expense, and a separate demand-loss estimate to understand the opportunity cost of stockouts. These metrics use different units and must not be directly equated without normalizing the period.

A worked scenario

500 average units at $12 landed cost and 22% annual carrying rate; 5 stockout days, 20 missed units/day, $14 contribution/unit.

Estimated carrying cost: $1,320/year; contribution at risk in the stockout scenario: $1,400.

The stockout number is a scenario risk, not an annualized certainty. Compare demand and lead-time distributions.

How to plan this decision

  1. Normalize periods

    Use an annual holding cost but forecast stockout scenarios separately.

  2. Validate demand

    Exclude out-of-stock days from naive sales averages when estimating demand.

  3. Set a buffer

    Use lead-time uncertainty and desired service level, not holding cost alone.

Read the detailed worked guide →

Start with the formula

Estimate the sales volume needed to cover fixed and variable costs, then stress-test the assumptions.

Read Break-Even Analysis for a New Product or Service →

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