What this calculator measures
A subscription price increase raises revenue per retained customer but may cause cancellations. This model applies an immediate customer-loss assumption to the current base, then compares resulting MRR with current MRR.
The break-even customer-loss rate is the maximum immediate loss that leaves MRR unchanged under the simple model. It does not mean the business should accept that churn because acquisition cost, support cost, customer mix, annual contracts, and future retention also matter.
Common use cases
Use this model when the inputs describe the same decision, period and customer or product scope.
- Model recurring-revenue impact after a subscription price increase and an assumed customer loss rate.
- Use the result with the recorded inputs: Current paying customers, Current monthly price, Proposed price increase, Expected customer loss.
- Compare multiple scenarios before making a marketing decision.
Formula
The model shows immediate recurring-revenue impact and does not forecast later acquisition, expansion, or recovery.
Formula breakdown
- The model compares the revenue effect of a higher subscription price with the customer or account loss caused by the increase.
- Use consistent billing periods and distinguish list price from realized average revenue.
Worked example
One thousand customers pay $29 per month, creating $29,000 MRR. A 12% price increase raises price to $32.48. If 5% of customers leave, 950 remain and modeled MRR becomes $30,856, an increase of $1,856. The simple break-even customer-loss rate is about 10.71%.
Scenario comparison
If 1,000 customers pay $20 monthly, MRR is $20,000. Raising price to $22 while retaining 950 customers produces $20,900 MRR.
If retention falls to 900 customers, MRR becomes $19,800 and the price increase reduces recurring revenue.
How to interpret the result
Segment customers by plan, tenure, usage, and willingness to pay. A single churn assumption can hide concentrated loss among the most valuable or most vocal customers.
Model grandfathering, annual renewals, discounts, tax, expansion, and downgrade paths separately when they materially change timing or realized price.
What a good result looks like
A successful increase should improve durable revenue or contribution without creating unacceptable churn or customer dissatisfaction.
Evaluate customer segments separately because willingness to pay may differ.
Common mistakes
- Do not assume all customers receive the same increase or respond identically.
- Do not evaluate only first-month MRR when churn may occur over several renewal cycles.
When this metric can mislead you
Short-term revenue can increase while lifetime value falls because of delayed churn.
The model does not measure competitive response, downgrade behavior or reputation effects.
How to use the result in a decision
Use it to identify the maximum churn that a proposed increase can tolerate.
Monitor retention, expansion and support volume after implementation.
Assumptions and limitations
- Every retained customer receives the same percentage increase.
- Customer loss happens immediately and no new customers are added.
- The current price and customer count represent the same monthly period.
- The model does not include downgrades, expansion, acquisition, annual billing timing, taxes, or variable delivery cost.